Projections

1. Click , then Forecasts, and then Limited Data Build.

2. Click the Projections tab.

3. Select the Opening Date and the Normalization Date. For their definition and examples, see Select the Dates.

4. Click Save.

5. The Projections Start defaults to the Opening Date that you entered. See Select the Dates to learn if you should change it.

6. Unless you changed the Projections Start date, the Projections End date defaults to the Projections Start date plus the required minimum number of days, 365. You can add up to 730 days of projections, see Select the Dates for details.

7. Based on what data you have available, select to Enter Data By:

   1. Day if you have daily projections data, for example, because your property uses RevPlan.

   2. Month if you have monthly projections data.

8. Select the Entry Type. Your options vary based on your selection in the previous step.

9. Click Apply.

10. Continue with one of the following steps based on your selected entry type:

    1. Downloading and Uploading an Excel Worksheet.

    2. Use Projections Builder.

If your property uses RevPlan:

If your property uses RevPlan, download your Rooms and Room Revenue Forecast data in RevPlan. Then go to Step 4 to upload the file. To use the download from RevPlan, you must ensure that:

• The LDB Projections page is unlocked. Contact your IDeaS representative if your screen is locked and you need to make an update.
• You assigned attributes at the market segment and not at the rate code level. In that case, your Market Segments page looks like this.

1. After you clicked to download the file, save the workbook to a location on your computer.
2. Complete or review the values:
   • For daily projections, use the Projected Data Template sheet.
     Note: You can add market segments in the file instead of adding them in the Market Segment tab, but don't delete any market segments. And if you add an invalid Market Segment by mistake, you can't delete it.
     
   • For monthly projections, the following sheets apply:
     • Period: This first sheet defines the dates for which you provide projections. The Start Date is usually the opening date. If that date is in the past, use today's date. The End Date is typically 365 days after the date when business patterns are normal.
       Note: don't change the Property Name or ID. It is one of the issues that cause upload failures.
     • The Rooms and ADR sheets contain your projections by Market Segment and month. You must add values for all months. If you use Component Rooms, enter the ADR for each Room Class.
       Note: The market segments attributed as Equal to BAR has a big impact on forecasts. An ADR lower than the configured Floor can result in unexpectedly low forecasts.
     • Use the DOW patterns to tell G3 RMS how to distribute the monthly values. Enter positive, whole numbers, and the total percentage must equal 100. See an example of how the system uses your patterns.
   • For ADR (monthly) and Projected Room Revenue (daily) values:
     • Exclude taxes and commissions.
     • For all-inclusive resorts, enter values based on the total price, inclusive of all services that your quoted prices cover.
3. Save any changes to the file in an XLSX format.
4. Click to Upload the Daily or Monthly File.
5. Navigate to and select the saved workbook.
6. Click Open. The system confirms when the projections are successfully uploaded.
7. To overwrite the values, repeat the process.

1. After you click Apply to use the Projections Builder, the Projected Rooms by Month table appears.
2. In the first tab, Rooms, enter the expected monthly rooms in the field following the market segment name. The value displays for all months for that market segment.
3. If needed, edit values. Complete the projections for all market segments, which are defined in the Market Segment tab. If needed, scroll to see all months and market segments.
4. Click Save
5. Click the ADR tab. The Projected ADR by Month table appears.
6. Complete the projected monthly ADR values by market segment and month. If you use Component Rooms, enter for each Room Class.
7. Click Save.
8. Click the DOW Pattern tab. The Projected Rooms Pattern by DOW table appears.
9. Enter the percentage value for each day of the week. The value in the first field displays for all days of the week, change any day, as needed. See an example of how the system uses your patterns.
   

10. Ensure that the last column with the sum of the percentages equals 100%.

11. Complete the percentage values for all market segments.

12. Click Save. Review your projections. If you want others to review, you can download a monthly file.
    You can't make changes after this step, so, if needed, make corrections now.
13. Click Generate. Based on the monthly values and day of week distribution, the system overwrites your monthly projections with a file containing daily projected rooms and revenue (for the dates defined by the Start Date and the End Date.
    Note: G3 RMS creates this file but does not upload it. You do that in the next step.
14. Follow the steps to Download and Upload an Excel Worksheet. Use the worksheet to review the daily projections.
    Note: The total number of rooms might not match what you entered because G3 RMS makes changes to ensure that rooms projections never exceed capacity.

The Opening Date is when the first guests occupy your hotel and is the first arrival date for which G3 RMS forecasts demand. It must be earlier or the same as the Normalization Date. For new hotels, this date is typically in the future. For hotels with guests already in house, the date could be the System Date Displayed in the top right of each page, the date on which G3 RMS received data from the reservation system. If the system receives no data by a certain time in the morning, it triggers an alert.. G3 RMS uses the date: 

• As the suggested start date for your Projections.

• To warn you of incomplete Limited Data Build configuration when you change dates.

• To determine the period from your Projections that it uses when it runs the next Build process.

Update this date if the opening date changes for a new hotel, for example, due to construction delays. This way, G3 RMS adjusts the period that it uses from your Projections in the next Build process, resulting in the best possible forecasts and decisions.

This date is the first occupancy date when business displays normal patterns and G3 RMS can use Actuals The occupancy, revenue or ADR that the property achieved, once the day is in the past. Actual occupancy is also called Final Rooms Sold. to forecast demand. To determine this date, imagine that the date is past, and you review its actual occupancy and revenue. Those values match what you expect from similar normal days in the future. For example, if you recently opened or re-branded your property, occupancy and ADR might be negatively impacted. Or your market segment mix might be impacted by one-time discounts. Business patterns are normal only when you no longer see those impacts in the Forecast Investigator. Therefore:

• Before that date, G3 RMS ignores your property's actual rooms and revenue and uses projected data to forecast future demand.

• On that date, the system starts using each day's Actual data together with projected data for forecasts.

The date selection depends on why your property uses Limited Data Build:

Newly Opened Property

For a newly opened hotel, you might have offered special discounts to attract business during an early, or soft, opening period. These one-time discounts impact the value, volume, and mix of business. So normal may mean that the achieved occupancy and revenues are not impacted by these discounts anymore, and business is consistent with what you expect in the future. In this scenario, the date is likely in the future, after the soft opening date.

Re-branded Property or New System

If your property was already open, and you lost historical data because you switched brands and systems, business may already be normal. In this case, the date is in the past. The date is in the future if business is not yet normal because of a delay in recording all reservations in the new system or because demand is irregular due to a brand transition.

You can load between 365 (minimum required) and 730 days of projections. You can select dates for less than 365 days if you want to download and upload the Excel worksheet more than once. For example, one worksheet for January 1 to June 30 and one for July 1 to December 31.

Note that if you load 730 days of projections, G3 RMS uses only 365 days, beginning with the system date. When G3 RMS re-builds the Limited Data Build, the system uses the next 365 days of projections, beginning with the system date. This also applies if you ask IDeaS to extend the forecast window from the default contracted 365 to 730 days. In that case, the system uses historical and on books business to forecast beyond 365 days, which might not match your expectations. For questions, contact your IDeaS representative.

Here are some scenarios for how to select the dates:

Property is open and welcoming guests

If your property is open and already welcoming guests, the Start Date should be the current System Date.

Property is not yet open or, it is open and selling rooms, but the first arrival date is in the future

G3 RMS defaults the Start Date to the first date that the property is expecting arrivals.

Usable History is Available

Your 365 days of data can be a combination of your projections and, if available, usable history. Usable history means that the first date with normal final data is in the past. The days between that date and the System Date Displayed in the top right of each page, the date on which G3 RMS received data from the reservation system. If the system receives no data by a certain time in the morning, it triggers an alert. count towards the 365 days.

For example, Actual data is available in G3 RMS from January 1 to March 31 of this year. You entered February 1, this year, as the first date with normal final rooms sold data, because the month of January did not provide representative data. In this case, your Start Date is April 1 of this year, because G3 RMS is missing data from this date. Your End Date is February 1, next year, 365 days after the first date with normal final rooms sold data.

Note that if you move the normalized date (when business patterns are normal) further into the future, you need to extend your projections as well.

You select 20% for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. The four other days are at 10%, so 100% for the week. Your projections for February are for 1,000 rooms. With 28 days or four weeks in the month, that means that each week receives 250 rooms. Of the 250 rooms, each Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday receive 50. Each other day, 25 rooms.

For a recurring Special Event, create only future, not past, instances. This applies even if the past instance is part of the historical data that G3 RMS uses to forecast (in other words, even if it occurs after the first date with normal final rooms sold data).

For example, today is June 1 and your projections include the recurring New Year’s Eve Special Event. Your first date with normal final rooms sold data is November 1 of last year. When this year's New Year's Eve happens, last year's instance falls into the historical data that the system uses, after November 1. However, because the future instance is in the period of your projections, G3 RMS likely ignores the past instance and uses normal demand patterns to forecast this year's instance. Therefore, monitor and, if needed, override the demand for this year's instance.

Once all your future Special Events instances occur after the period of your projections, follow the Best Practices for repeat events.

• No changes to the Property Name and Property ID rows.
• No columns are added, deleted, moved, or renamed.
• No changes to the names and order of tabs.
• The file type is XLSX.
• For daily values:
  • No market segment is missing for a day.
  • Days with room revenue also have rooms sold greater than 0.
  • There are no gaps in dates between the start and end date.
• The total projected rooms don't exceed the capacity.
• No rows or cells are blank. Enter 0.00 as placeholders if there are no projected rooms or revenue values for a date.
• No changes in cell formatting for numbers, including no formulas in the cells.