Forecast Groups

Use this tab to Create and Commit Forecast Groups and to finish setting up Market Segments so that G3 RMS can create forecasts and decisions for you. It includes these steps:

  1. Create Forecast Groups. G3 RMS combines market segments into Forecast Groups, based on attributes and booking patterns. For example, two market segments with the same attributes are in two different Forecast Groups because of their booking patterns. One books much earlier than the other.
  2. Review Forecast Groups. In rare cases you might make changes. For example, if you assigned incorrect attributes to a market segment, or for low volume market segments that you are certain belong in a different Forecast Group.
  3. Commit Forecast Groups. G3 RMS starts a full optimization and goes into Read Only mode. After the optimization completes, forecasts and decisions display in the system.

You can also view this video about how to create and commit your Forecast Groups.

Steps to Set Up Forecast Groups

Creating Forecast Groups

  1. Click , then Forecasts, and then Market Segments.
  2. Click the Forecast Groups tab.
  3. Click Create Forecast Groups.
  4. Check the system's setup message. It confirms that you meet the required criteria for creating Forecast Groups. All criteria in the confirmation message must show a check mark icon .
    • Click Create Forecast Groups to continue if you meet the criteria.
    • Click Cancel if you didn't meet the criteria, then correct the issues. Note: There are issues that you can't correct. For example, if G3 RMS lacks historical or pace data, it needs more time to get enough data.

The process of creating Forecast Groups can take several minutes. When it completes, a list of the Forecast Groups displays in the left pane of the Forecast Groups tab. Newly created Forecast Groups are flagged with a check mark icon . The Market Segment number indicates how many market segments the system included in the Forecast Group.

Resolving Unapproved Forecast Group Alerts

After your Forecast Groups are created, G3 RMS generates an Unapproved Forecast Group Alert in Information Manager. It informs you that you need to commit the Forecast Groups. The Alert includes a link to the Forecast Groups tab.

Reviewing Forecast Groups

G3 RMS creates the best possible Forecast Groups, based on the attributes and a pattern analysis. You can't validate the system’s complex pattern analysis, so typically you commit the system-proposed Forecast Groups. But in some cases you might know something that the system doesn't, so look for the following:

  1. Check that you correctly assigned attributes to market segments.
  2. Review low volume market segments.

Checking Market Segment Attributes

  1. Select each Forecast Group in the left pane.
  2. Verify its market segments, displayed in the right pane.
  3. If the market segments in a Forecast Group don't make sense, check if they have an incorrect attribute. If so, click to Reject FGs (Forecast Groups). Correct the attributes in the Market Segments tab. Then, click to again Create Forecast Groups.

Reviewing Low Volume Market Segments

Look for Forecast Groups that are flagged with a low volume icon .

This icon indicates that the Forecast Group contains low volume market segments. For those, G3 RMS can't make strong recommendations. Due to the low volume of bookings, the analysis of patterns is difficult. In this case, the system selects the most logical Forecast Group based on the available information.

Ideally, you have few low volume market segments. If you have many, it's likely because you split many market segments and the splits don't have enough business, see clean and dirty market segments for details.

We recommend that you leave low volume market segments in the suggested Forecast Group. Note these exceptions:

  • You changed the names of your market segments. And you have a "new" and an equivalent "old" market segment in different Forecast Groups. In that case, the old and new market segments should be in the same Forecast Group.
  • You have a very new market segment with few bookings so far. And you know that the new market segment will behave very similarly to another market segment which is in a different Forecast Group. In that case, you can move it.

Note: The low volume icon does not appear for market segments with the Forecast Type of "None" or "Wash". The same applies to market segments attributed as "Equal to BAR".

Moving Low Volume Market Segments

  1. Select a Forecast Group with the low volume icon . The included market segments and their attributes display in the right pane.
  2. Click the low volume icon for the market segment that you want to move. The Move Market Segment to window opens.
  3. You can only move low volume market segments into Forecast Groups with the same attributes. If Forecast Groups are available, select the one that you want to move the market segment to. If none are available, click x to close the window.
  4. Click Save.

Committing Forecast Groups

You must commit the Forecast Groups that G3 RMS creates from your market segments. Otherwise, G3 RMS doesn't complete the creation of Forecast Groups. That means that it doesn't create forecasts or that they might be inaccurate.

  1. Click , then Forecasts, and then Market Segments.
  2. Click the Forecast Groups tab.
  3. Click Commit FGs. A confirmation window opens.
  4. Click Yes to confirm.

After you commit the Forecast Groups, G3 RMS starts an optimizationClosed G3 RMS uses the demand forecast (volume and value), the available capacity to sell, your configuration and your interactions (Special Events, overrides) to calculate optimized controls. Optimization output includes pricing for the BAR, Last Room Value (LRV), overbooking and the constrained Occupancy Forecast. and goes into Read Only mode. That takes five to ten minutes. After the optimization completes, forecasts and decisions display on the relevant pages. The Commit FGs button is disabled.

Renaming Forecast Groups

G3 RMS creates default names based on the attributes of the included market segments. For example, EB for market segments that have the Equal to BAR attribute.

You can edit the name of the Forecast Groups to make them more meaningful. Keep in mind that you have to re-create the Forecast Group names each time there are changes in market segments. When you re-create and commit Forecast Groups, G3 RMS wipes out custom names and replaces them with the default names

  1. Select the Forecast Group in the left pane.
  2. Click the edit icon .
  3. Change the Forecast Group name in the open field. The name can consist of alphanumeric characters and the symbols _ ( )
  4. Click the save icon .